By Scott Akins (@jrzy_boy)
I spent a morning last week sitting at my desk performing my usual 11:30am Twitter feed review, to see what’s going on in the world of sports, pop culture, etc. All seemed pretty normal until I read the following tweet:
“Brandon Jennings wants a max deal? Okay.” – @LakersNation (Yes I am a Lakers fan, deal with it)
I think we all can agree the words Brandon Jennings and max deal should never be placed together in the same sentence. That tweet, however, lead me to begin thinking of who actually “deserves” a max deal in the NBA. LeBron James and Kevin Durant obviously come to mind. If you even have to think about whether or not you’d give these two guys a max control, stop reading this right now, because you probably think you’re reading an article on soccer.
For the sake of this article, put your mindset into the following situation: you are an NBA GM, you have room for one max contract this summer and everyone in the NBA is a free agent. Keep in mind, this isn’t a lifetime achievement article so guys like Kobe, Dirk, Duncan, etc. are not listed because you’d have to be insane to offer those a max deal. Another thing to consider, unlike the real CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) restrictions, all max deals are created equal for this exercise (5 years – $118m). I am not listing every single player that could be discussed, just the ones who are worth discussing.
I’ve found that guys fall into one of four categories:
- Give Him a Blank Check
- Yes, He’s a Max Contract Guy But…
- The Name is Bigger than the Performance
- Right now? No, But He Will Be
Give Him a Blank Check
LeBron James - These next few sentences are so excruciatingly painful for me to type because I am completely anti-LeBron. One thing I do realize is, LeBron James is the best basketball player on the planet. The man routinely puts up 27-7-7 nights while shooting over 50% from the floor and playing elite defense (even if the refs never call him for a foul). And now it seems as though his ability to go Tony Romo on us in the playoffs has faded away (sorry Dallas fans, oh wait that’s me too).
Example: Game 6 2012 Eastern Conference Finals – One loss away from the ghost of past playoff failures appearing again LeBron goes on the road (in Boston nonetheless) and drops a 45-15 bomb on the Celtics. He’s also only 28 and just reaching his physical peak. I could go on, but I’ve already vomited four times writing this paragraph on LeBron._
Kevin Durant - KD is averaging 29.3 a night, which not only leads his team but the NBA as well. And he’s doing this while being 2nd on his team in FGA per game. His .517% FG/. 422% 3PT/.902% FT averages probably have something to do with that. Durant is on his way to becoming only the 6th player in NBA history to join the 50-40-90 Club, and only Larry Legend (29.9 in 86-87) had a higher ppg average than Durant currently has.
Throw in the 7.5 rebounds every night, his ability to somehow dish out 4.4 assists even though he’s playing with a ball dominating guard in Westbrook and the fact that he’s the leader of an OKC team that has gotten better every year since 2009. Did I mention he’s only 24 years old?
See: Kevin Durant Will be the All-Time Leading Scorer!
Yes, He’s a Max Contract Guy But…
Carmelo Anthony – Carmelo is probably the most difficult perimeter player in the NBA to defend. His outside shot is not as deadly as Durant’s but its pretty close as shown in his .415% shooting from 3-point land this season. The concern with Melo has always been his maturity and lack of defense. He has seemed to accept the challenge of becoming a better defender this season which is a great sign that he is also maturing into a leader. Melo would be in the category above, but I need to see this level of growth for more than one season.
Chris Paul - I’m always weary of a player with knee problems. And the fact that he had his torn lateral meniscus removed from his right knee in 2010, instead of having it repaired like most players is definitely a red flag. He has also missed 83 games in 8 seasons, compared that to someone like LeBron who’s only missed 33 games in 10 years (I know I know, he’s a freak of nature), Durant who’s missed 14 games in 6 years or even Kobe who’s had a ton of injuries over his career but has only missed 87 games in 15 seasons as a starter.
Injuries aside, CP3 is without argument the best point guard in the National Basketball Association. He shoots a high percentage from the field, over 35% from 3 for his career, and is pretty much an 18-19 ppg and 10 assist guy. Add in his guaranteed 2+ steals a night, a career 4.04 assist to turnover ratio, natural born floor general abilities and his insane playmaking abilities and I’d definitely sign the check. Then I’d pray his knee doesn’t let me down.
Derrick Rose - Coming off of his 2010-11 campaign this was a no-brainer. League MVP in only his 3rd NBA season, carried the Bulls to a one seed in the same conference as Boston and Miami, 25/7.7/4 a night and only 22 years old.
Then he was nagged by an ankle injury for most of the lockout shortened season where his team still managed to win the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. What followed was an unfortunate ACL injury when he probably should’ve been on the bench with the game in hand. Now we’re looking at a 24 year old PG coming off an injury riddled season that ended with a blown ACL.
I know we just saw maybe one of the greatest seasons in NFL history by running back Adrian Peterson who tore his ACL the previous year, but that was football. While football is the most physical sport (until Goodell implements a no tackling clause in the next CBA) basketball players use their knees in a more demanding way.
Between all of the cuts moving with and without the basketball, defending your opposition – especially on the perimeter and exploding to the goal it is unknown whether or not Rose will be the same player he was before getting hurt. Knees and NBA players are very tricky, some guys recover without any issues, others become the next Ron Harper. If Rose returns later this season as himself, then “cut the check.”
Dwight Howard - The concerns with Dwight are a mixture of the concerns for Melo and CP3. Dwight just hasn’t looked the same since returning from back surgery, granted he returned earlier than expected, but my rule is “if you’re playing, there are no excuses.” I could probably write four pages on why I believe he’s one of the most immature NBA players I’ve ever seen.
We all killed LeBron for “The Decision,” but at least he made a decision. Dwight is so worried about people loving him it’s ridiculous. Buster Olney likened the Dwight/Kobe duo to A-Rod/Jeter, which accurately depicts Dwight as the overly sensitive guy who’s always concerned with what people think about him, while labeling Kobe as the guy who does whatever it takes to win. (I got a Yankee reference in here too. The sports fan trifecta is complete!)
Another concern is whether or not he truly wants to be one of the greatest centers of all time or is he just saying it? Actions speak louder than words, and while he says the right things, you can see his will to win isn’t quite there. No one is going to be as driven as Kobe, because Kobe is a borderline psychopath, but at least be a little crazy when it comes to winning.
Last but not least, wouldn’t it be nice to be able to give the ball to your franchise player down the stretch of a playoff game, big regular season game or a game in general? We all knew Shaq couldn’t shoot free throws and that he claimed he’d always make them when they counted (more myth than fact), but Dwight doesn’t have even half of the offensive repertoire that the real Superman had.
Before the back surgery Dwight was the best big man in the NBA, even if he offensively wasn’t better than Pau Gasol, Brook Lopez or Andrew Bynum and defensively is neck and neck with Chandler, because he was the most complete package and the most durable. I’d still sign the check for him, but it’s more a risk than it should be. If this season turns out not to be an anomaly, Dwight suddenly drops to the group below.
The Name is Bigger than the Performance
Chris Bosh – I’m pretty sure I really don’t have to go into much detail on this one. Bosh is a better player than most people give him credit for. Fact is, Miami doesn’t make it out of that Boston series last year if he doesn’t return from an abdominal injury. Prior to joining Miami, Bosh was a 22/9.5 guy on 50% shooting, however in his 7 years in Toronto they made the playoffs just twice.
At 6’11” Bosh is more of a finesse player than a traditional big man. Bosh is averaging more shots from 10 feet out than he does from within 10 feet of the basket (6.8/5.2). You could argue that playing with D-Wade and LeBron has maybe affected that, however looking at Bosh’s Toronto numbers from 07-08 (8.1/7.1) and 08-09 (9.1/7) shows that he is what we think he is.
Dwyane Wade - I struggled with this one, because every time I think D-Wade is done, he explodes for a string of huge nights and sucks me back in. Injuries and the greatness of LeBron James have seemingly killed Wade’s value, or at least his perceived value. Wade’s ppg, rpg and apg have all declined since the beginning of the 2010-11 season which coincides with LeBron’s arrival.
Wade is still a very active defender, but not as active as he once was when he became the shortest player (6’4”) to tally 100 blocks in a season. I’d like to believe that Wade’s decline is solely a result of LeBron being his teammate, but I believe wear and tear has a lot to do with it as well. He’s missed 130 games over 10 seasons and is now 31. With the exception of maybe Kobe who still isn’t 36 yet, I can’t remember a guy at this position who penciled in five elite years from ages 31-36.
Rajon Rondo - Rondo is an interesting guy. His name is always mentioned as one of the best PG’s in basketball and rightfully so. The last three years he’s averaged over 11 APG while maintaining an assist to turnover ratio right around 3. He started on a championship team and was arguably the best player in the playoffs in 2008-09 (16.9/9.8/9.7) and 2009-10 on a team that was five minutes away from a championship. Not to mention he’s only 26.
Then you start thinking about how Ray Allen decided to come off the bench in Miami instead of possibly starting in Boston for half the amount of money Boston was offering him, because he couldn’t get along with Rondo. The inexcusable blowups he has from time to time “i.e.” shoving a referee and scratching Kris Humphries which exposed him to who knows what kind of diseases seeing that the Hump was raw dogging Kim K.
You also start thinking about how defenders (a la Kobe in the 2010 Finals) play 3 feet off of him daring him to make that 16-23 foot jumper. While he was shooting 48% from that area this season (tied for second among PGs who play 30+ MPG) last year he shot 39%, 2010-11 41% and 2009-10 33%.
Finally, he now has a partially torn ACL that he must work his way back from. So if you’re keeping track at home we’re talking about a moody PG which is the QB of the floor, who can’t shoot and just suffered a major knee injury. I would definitely pay Rondo something along the lines of $13-15 million a year, but not a max deal.
See: Which type of PG is better: scoring or distributing?
Kevin Love - Love is a rebounding machine and a guy who has a reputation for being able to stretch the floor as a PF. In Love’s previous two seasons he put up 20/15 and 26/13 a night with shooting splits of .470/.417/.850 and .448/.372/.824. His 18/14 this season is still elite until you look at the shooting splits of .352/.217/.704, however those numbers are directly attributed to the broken right hand he played with before breaking it again in January.
So why is he in this group? Rule #1 for giving a guy a max deal, he has to be able to at least carry you to the playoffs, even with a horrible supporting cast. Every single guy listed in the groups above has done this. Since Love joined the T-Wolves the best winning pct. they’ve had was .394 during a lockout shortened season. Rule #2 for handing out max money is, we must be able to count on you playing every night.
Love is in his 5th season and has already missed 73 games, almost an entire season’s worth. He is only 24, but I believe he’s listed appropriately. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
Right now? No, But He Will Be
Russell Westbrook - I stated in the Durant section that KD leads the league in PPG while being second on his team FGA per game. Guess who’s #1 in that category? I will credit Westbrook that he does distribute the ball dishing out 8.2 APG this season, however he has a 2.37 assist to turnover ratio and a career ratio of 1.99. Russ also has a career .429 FG% even though he gets to the hole more than any other point guard in the NBA. He’s averaging 6.1 attempts per game at the rim this season, but he’s only making 58% of those shots. I personally like Russ’s game because he’s athletic, energetic and very active on the defensive end.
However, I need my point guard to understand that under no circumstances should he ever average more shots per game than a healthy Kevin Durant. I also don’t know if I can trust him to be “the man” of a team. Luckily, Russ is only 24 which means there’s plenty of time for him to improve on those turnovers, at the rim and his maturity.
Kyrie Irving - In his 2nd year he’s already shooting 47.4%/42.9%/85.2%. If he keeps improving he could very well follow in Durant’s footsteps as the next guy to join the 50/40/90 club. At 23.9 PPG he’s already proving to be prolific scorer who will only get better over time.
The only issue with Kyrie is his ability to stay healthy, he played in only 11 games during his one year at Duke, missed 15 games as a rookie and 11 games already this year. If I’m paying top dollar for a guy, he needs to be on the floor 75-78 games a year.
James Harden – Last but not least, “The Beard” is quietly having a phenomenal year. In his first season as a starter and “The Man,” Harden is putting up 26.1/5.7/4.7 to go along with 1.8 spg and .452/.349/.852 shooting splits. His turnovers are a little too high right now at 3.8 per night, giving him an assist to turnover ratio of 1.51 which is below the league average. Harden also has the Rockets in the middle of a playoff race for the first time 4 years.
A few things to keep in mind when thinking about Harden:
- He’s only 23 years old and in his 4th season
- This is only his first season as a starter, and he was traded the weekend before the NBA season began so he did not go through training camp knowing that he would have a franchise on his shoulders.
- Harden has been a part of a team who hung in there with the champs in 2010 (6 game series with the Lakers) when they were considered young bucks. Went to the WCF in 2011 losing to the eventual champs (Dallas) and made it to the finals in 2012 losing to Miami after being down 0-2 in the WCF to the Spurs.
So while he disappeared in the finals last year, he does have big game experience and I expect him to grow from that series.
See: “Fear the Beard”: Take off of James Harden in Houston
So….that’s my list, sorry Brandon Jennings but you don’t make the cut. Disagree with any of the guys listed above, leave a comment and hit me up on twitter @jrzy_boy.
